This simulator will help you understand how the scores in tournament games can affect the share value of teams.
Simply input the scores for two teams and the point spread. The simulator calculates and shows you how these scores impact the teams' share values.
You can experiment with different scores and point spreads to see various outcomes. This is great for getting insights into how game results influence team valuations.
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First we'll enter the current share values for each team. These are the share values before the game has completed.
For the sake of this demonstration, we'll set them each to $3,000.
Next we'll enter a score for the favorite (the team expected to win) and a score for the underdog (the team expected to lose).
Then we'll enter the point spread for the game.
In CBB Blue Chips, you can essentially think of the point spread as the number of points the favorite is expected to win by.
We only set the point spread once for each game at the beginning of the day the game is played. The point spread has no bearing on the actual outcome of the game, but is used when determining how teams' share values will change.
Note that in our game the point spread will always a half-point value. This is to prevent ties from occurring and share values remaining the same.
Before we can complete the final step of calculating the new share values, we need to know whether or not the spread was covered.
In the above scenario, the favorite has won the game by scoring 2 points more than the underdog.
In this scenario, in order to cover the spread, the favorite must have won by at least 3.5 points.
If we subtract 3.5 points from the favorite's score, reducing it to 68.5, we can see that they were unable to cover because that is 1.5 less than the underdog's score of 70.
The final step is to understand how the share values will change based on the point spread outcome above.
Share values change differently depending on the current round of the tournament. A breakdown of the algorithm behind share value changes can be seen here.
Note that share value decreases are only half as severe as share value increases.
With a complete understanding of the underlying logic behind share value changes, now we can view the new share values.
2,840
Even though the favorite won, since they were unable to cover by 1.5 points, their share value has gone down. The new share value is highlighted in the table below.
3,320
Since the favorite was unable to cover the spread by 1.5 points, the underdog's share value will go up. The new share value is highlighted in the table below.
The chart below further illustrates how spread coverage (or failure to do so) affects share value.